Saturday, August 29, 2009

Yanlord












Okay i have revisited TA for Yanlord on the request of my trade buddy.. First lets have a bigger picture of how i get the major trend line (Blues). Following is a narrow view of recent price movement. As you can see, we are still in yellow downtrend pending breakout (Up)..

First Support 2.26-2.3, broken if will continues its downtrend all the way to 2.1 or so.. slow bounce off (Sideline after touching lower BB)
First Resistance 2.36-37, downtrend channel. 2.4 is major resistance but if downtrend brokeout, it could be overcome easily. From the TA point of view, Yanlord is well position for a good rebound with the support and resistance very clear cut with its momentum indicator. Or in fact good entry should be after 2.4 broke up confirmation. cut if support broken. My major concern would be major sti sentiment which seems a bit bo lak compare to previous rally.. Suggestion is to load small position during retrace.. Slowly when the initial position gain profit, top up to double profit along the way.. with this you keep yourself with lowest risk. (Note: no contra is advisable for this stock)






Next TA is using Elliot Wave analysis.. Mine is kanasai skilled but so far i find it pretty useful to analysis general direction (As indicator never provide how a potential trend can goes but EW does .. :))
Now Wave 2 never retrace 50% of wave 1 which usually does. In our case, 23.6 38.2 region. Wave 3 the longest. Wave 4 never touches wave 1 region. Common Fibo retracement for wave 4 is 0.382 region. but in yanlord case 23.6.. unless yanlord is superbullish (Likely) or my Elliot wave count sucks... WRONG. In this case we are primary B, Wave C... (Bear looking for bottom)
Okay This is how i did it..
Impulse Waves. For wave 3, 5 the common Fibo ratios are 1, 1,618, 2.618 and rarely 4.618.. To calculate Waves 3 projection, we take the distance traveled in Wave 1, 0.705, multiply with 1.618 and extend from the extreme of wave 2. The results is 2.35 . In our case actual wave 3 2.47 which is relatively close.
Wave 5 is a bit tricky. 2 scenarios:
1st:
Wave 3 will typically be the extended wave while wave 1, 5 will tend toward equality. So our first Fibo ratio is equality 1. 2.15 + 0.705 = 2.855.. Fui Yo.. 2.89 as End of Wave 5 ?? So close?
2nd:
Wave 5 is extended wave, thus 1.618 ratio to Wave 1 - 3, in our case target 2.92? Within Wave 5, 5 sub waves is nicely defined. Huat Chai ba

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